Nigel Farage is the latest in a long line of politicians to face questions about his financial affairs. Despite this, the Reform UK leader comfortably avoided a binning by his constituents in the Clacton byelection – albeit in the absence of the main parties.
This is perhaps unsurprising. The allegations against Farage include the claim (currently subject to a parliamentary standards investigation), that he should have declared a £5 million gift he received ahead of the 2024 general election. Farage has insisted that he has “done no wrongdoing” and that he “followed the rules”.
But a series of academic studies suggest that people tend to justify the behaviour of politicians they support rather than changing their vote to back someone else.
Only when scandals become too blatant and heavily covered for supporters to rationalise away do politicians tend to lose support. With this in mind, it’s perhaps not surprising that Farage won comfortably on home turf.
The effects of scandals on our political attitudes are difficult to study, in part because scandals are rare events. The fallout from any individual scandal could be specific to the politician involved, the time period in which it occurred, or the detail of the scandal itself. Measuring the “scandalousness” of any one event is quite difficult.
These are some of the problems that my colleague James Tilley and I tackled in a study of the 2009 parliamentary expenses scandal in the UK. Back then, hundreds of MPs were accused of claiming expenses to which they were not entitled. Many were required to repay money, and a small number were convicted of fraud and even jailed.
The advantage of studying this particular scandal is that a large number of MPs were implicated in similar misconduct at the same time. In addition, the extent to which each MP was implicated could be quantified, both in terms of the value of expenses they were asked to repay, and by measuring the press coverage focusing on each MP.
Importantly, the extent to which each MP was implicated was essentially random across constituencies. This meant that we could measure how a broad swathe of people responded to allegations affecting their local MP.
We found that voters were remarkably aware of the extent to which their MP was implicated in the scandal. The greater an MP’s apparent wrongdoing, either in terms of the money involved or the press coverage, the more their constituents noticed. However, while some constituents reduced their support for their MP, these effects were generally quite small and would probably have mattered only in marginal constituencies. This reaffirmed some previous work about the same scandal.
Wider trust issues
Another point we considered is whether scandals not only affect people’s attitudes towards the politician implicated, but whether they also affect people’s wider attitudes towards politics as a whole. As such, a judgement about a particular politician becomes generalised into a wider assessment of the performance of politicians in general.
This could be a cause for concern. Trust in politics is associated with whether people turn out to vote, whether they comply with the law and whether they support democratic forms of government. As such, allegations of financial misconduct by politicians could have implications beyond election results.
However, we found no evidence that the constituents of heavily implicated MPs changed their attitudes toward the wider system, in comparison to those whose MP was less implicated. It doesn’t appear that people tend to generalise the behaviour of their local MP into a wider judgment about the system as a whole.
Of course, there are several caveats when comparing the fallout from the expenses scandal with the claims against Farage. The former implicated many MPs at the same time, and the nature of the allegations was different. Farage is also a much more prominent figure than the typical MP we studied. And at the time of writing, the investigation into the claims against him is yet to conclude.
But there are good reasons to expect any change in attitudes among Farage’s constituents to be even weaker in his case. For example, Reform UK voters already tend to have less trust in the system than the average voter. If the claims against Farage are seen to come from that system, his supporters may be even less likely to believe them. Equally, voters with lower levels of trust in politicians generally may be less likely to view the claims against Farage as unusual or particularly deserving of electoral punishment.
When it comes down to it, so far Farage’s experience in Clacton seems to back up the idea that misconduct claims against MPs do not always have substantial effects. That said, with the investigation into the claims against him now resumed, whether this pattern will continue remains to be seen.
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